Exponential Curve 2
Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Part 2
For the love of the human
race.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Our Thesis
We are greatly indebted to Dr. Albert Allen Bartlett (1923-2013),
former emeritus professor of physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder.[1] These are Dr. Bartlett’s ideas, we are merely
reporting them. We have performed a
lengthy analysis of Dr. Bartlett’s “arithmetic” elsewhere.[2]
One cannot investigate either energy policy or energy theory
without a thorough understanding of the exponential curve.[3]
Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Part 2
In Part 2, Dr. Bartlett applies the concept of doubling time
to inflation and population. We
embellished his ideas, added a new area of our own: namely, consumption, and
updated the data.
t
(doubling time) ≡
ln (2) / ln (b)
t
(doubling time) ≈ 70% // r%/t
b = 1 + r per unit time. b for a 5% per year
growth rate is 1.05 per year.
The problem of inflation.
An inflation rate of 7% per year yields a
precise doubling time of 10.24 years, and a rule of 70 estimate
of only 10 years. This
means that the dollar in your pocket will be worth fifty cents of real money in
ten years. So you will need to invest
that dollar at 7% annual interest just to break even. If you can’t find investments that are better
than the inflation rate, carefully purchase quality durable goods as you can
pay cash for them. “Get that gall
bladder surgery today.”[4] A suit, however, is a bad investment, because
it will either wear out or grow out of style too quickly. Even then, you will need to be wary of
multiple hidden fees and taxes, which complicate the inflation and investment
problem.
The problem of population.
Dr. Bartlett suggests that overpopulation is a problem. He may be on to something here. The population glut along the I-25 corridor,
fondly known as Little Silicon Valley, has transformed the landscape from a
pleasant quiet ranching community, into a seething ugly monster.
He discusses options that increase population, options that
decrease population, and notes that nature will chose from the right hand list,
if we do not chose ourselves. We will
reach zero population growth.
From a Christian standpoint, the key Bible passage on the
subject is found in Genesis. The
following Bible passage is often called the cultural mandate.
And God said, Let Us make man in Our image, after Our likeness:
and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, the fowl of the air, the cattle,
all the earth, and every creeping thing that creeps on earth. So God created man in His own image, in the image
of God, He created him; He created them male and female. And God blessed them, and God said to them, “Be
fruitful, multiply, fill the earth, subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of
the sea, over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moves on earth.”[5]
Because of the expression “fill” or “replenish” many
Christians, not just Roman Catholics, are reluctant to limit their family size:
thus telling God how and when they will submit to His command. That being said, perhaps it is a fair
question to ask, “When will the earth be filled?” With this in mind we have completed a
population study to attempt to evaluate the saturation density of population.
The “cultural mandate” needs to be reexamined with a view to
discovering what the concepts of “fill” and “subdue” mean; and more
importantly, how they are to be balanced.
We tentatively suggest that many more people might consider celibacy in divine
service as a lifestyle option. This
would enable those who are compelled to marry to live without incurring
unnecessary guilt.
Updated Data
As of November, 2014, the world population is approaching 7.25
billion; while the United States population approaches 325
million people.[7] The world has over 4 billion acres
under cultivation, and another 10 billion acres in fixed crops,
such as forests, fruit trees, bushes, etc.: an aggregate in excess of 14
billion acres of useable land worldwide. The United States has over 1 billion
acres of useable land.
Dividing the usable acres by the population yields the
number of acres per person: the world average is slightly less than 2
acres per person; the United States, 3.58. The reasonable question now becomes, “Can a
family live comfortable, healthy lives on this amount of land? Under current living conditions it seems
unlikely that we have reached saturation in most parts of the world. However, those conditions will change
drastically with the total depletion of fossil fuels. Our life styles will be radically changed.
We will revert to a
cultural model similar to that of 1850.
One of the chief sources of energy will be animal and human power. Under these conditions, we may well need more
people, not less. These are questions
that we need to ask our best technological, philosophical, and theological thinkers. The most knowledgeable soil conservation, biological
efficiency, and land-use expert is the plain dirt farmer, forester, orchardist,
or rancher.
In many ways the population problem is not an overpopulation
problem; but rather, it is an overcrowding problem. People tend to drift toward hyper-dense
cities: perhaps this has always been the case.
If and when fossil fuels are depleted, cities will suffer most.
We need to maintain the world at its ideal population
saturation point.
The problem of consumption.
Dr. Bartlett will address this problem later; but, we
believe that it is the fundamental problem.
Inflation is a monetary problem, which exists strictly
because of human foolishness: it can be stopped whenever the ruling individuals
decide to stop it. Money in the United
States is presently worthless fiat money, ever since money was divorced from
gold and silver standards. In the United
States the value of money is determined by the Federal Reserve Bank, an
independent corporation, with some oversight from the President. When the Federal Reserve decides to flood the
economy with additional paper money, the value of the money in your pocket
diminishes accordingly. This has little
to do with the loss of limited resources.
Population is a serious problem, but it is in part dependent
on the consumption of limited resources.
We cannot really resolve the problem of population until we solve the
consumption problem: because population stability is a matter of the
consumption per person; and because the whole problem will shift with the
exhausting of fossil fuels. We believe
that the consumption problem must be solved first. When the consumption problem is solved, then
we will be in position to tackle the population problem.
If we deliberately reduce the world population, which
amounts to some sort of wicked scheme of mass murder, the remaining people,
unrestrained, will rapidly double their consumption, and the problem will not
be resolved.
Running out of fixed
limited resources is an inevitability that needs to be managed globally.
Dealing with population must be done after or at the same
time as we learn to budget and manage.
Once we determine how to manage fixed limited resources we can figure
out how many people it will take to accomplish that task and aim at getting
there.
We must change! We must change the way we think about
consumption. We must stop thinking in
terms of growth. We must start thinking
in terms of reduction, conservation, and sharing.
Our Conclusion
The application of exponential, steady growth “arithmetic”
to inflation and population yields alarming and startling results. As we examine these things from the twin standpoints
of doubling time and size we get a deeper understanding of why nations fail due
to runaway inflation; and why massive populations live in constant famine due
to overcrowding. Numerous practical
examples found in massive cities show us the inevitable results. Zero population growth is an inevitable
future outcome. Even if we reduced the
population by half, a population solution does not solve the overconsumption
problem.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Allen_Bartlett
[2] http://swantec-ep.blogspot.com/2014/11/energy-policy-analysis-2-ra.html
[3] http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy_video1.html
[4]
Dr. Bartlett’s joke
[5]
Genesis 1:26-28
[6]
Genesis 2:15
[7] http://www.census.gov/popclock/
[8] If you have been blessed or helped by any of these meditations,
please repost, share, or use any of them as you wish. No rights are reserved. They are designed and intended for your free
participation. They were freely
received, and are freely given. No other
permission is required for their use.
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