Energy Policy
Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Part 8
Revision A
For the love of the human
race.
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Our Thesis
We believe that Dr. Bartlett’s work is unfinished: it must
be continued; newer, creative solutions, which may not have been apparent a few
years ago, when Dr. Bartlett did his primary investigations, need to be
uncovered. The single human mind is
always limited in its abilities: this work needs the contribution of every
mind. New solutions must be found.
Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Part 8
http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy_video1.html Better results were achieved by playing the
video clip directly from this site, rather than by linking through
YouTube. Click on the arrow in the
middle of the picture, rather than on the black bar at the top. This is Part 8.
Part 8 begins with a terse series of quotes and remarks:
“So to be successful with this
experiment of human life on earth, we have to understand the laws of nature as
we encounter them in the study of science and mathematics.”[1]
Cartoon: “Thinking is very
upsetting. It tells you things you’d
rather not know.”[2]
Galileo (1584-1642): “I do not
feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason
and intellect, has intended us to forego their use.”
We should remember the words
of Aldous Huxley, “Facts do not cease to exist because they're ignored.”
H. L Mencken believed, “It is
in the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to
embrace what is obviously false but comforting.”
We should remember the words
of Eric Sevareid; he observed, “The chief source of problems is solutions.”[3]
Dr. Bartlett then observes
that the story of the Aswan Dam is an excellent example of how our solutions to
problems frequently make things worse.
The Nile flooding, for thousands of years, produced a sustainable agriculture,
but was a nuisance for the cities. The
high dam at Aswan was built. The silt is
building up behind the dam, limiting its life to a few hundred years. The effluent is clear, so the fertile Nile
soils are no longer renewed. The delta
is being washed into the Mediterranean.
The Mediterranean fishery is in serious decline. Fertilizer must be purchased to sustain
agriculture. Agricultural workers are
subject to Schistosomiasis.
“This is what we encounter every day: solutions to problems just make the
problems worse.”1
Dr. Bartlett throws down this
gauntlet:
“So here’s a challenge. Can
you think of any problem, on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long
term solution is in any demonstratable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by
having larger populations in our local levels, state levels, national level, or
global level? Can you think of anything that can get better if we crowd more
people into our cities, our towns, into our state, our nation, or on this
earth?”1
Our answer is, “Yes, we
can think of at least one problem that might be resolved by an increase of
population.”
The key operative word is crowding, rather than population
or overpopulation. We agree that
crowding is a bad thing. However,
crowding is a pejorative term that assumes the conclusion. Since crowding has, very possibly, extreme
negative consequences, perhaps we should consider distributing as a possible
alternative.
The problem is this.
An automobile is roughly equivalent to between two and five hundred
horses in its capacity to do work; perhaps two to five thousand men in terms of
work capacity. It may be desirable to
maintain part of this work output after the demise of fossil fuels. At least one of three things must happen:
1. We will need a lot more
horses and men to sustain the existing workload.
2. We will need to be a
lot more efficient in our use of horses and men to sustain the existing workload.
3. We will be forced to
reduce our work output, and tighten our belts.
That being said, what will
we give up? Water? Sewer?
Police? Fire?
We return to the idea of distribution to suggest that a well
distributed population is a more efficient and productive population. This suggests a return to the family farm,
the use of septic tanks that require less maintenance, and hand or wind pumped
water wells that function without grandiose treatment plants and massive
plumbing systems. This suggests an
attempted return to sustainable agriculture.
What the age of fossil fuels has done for humanity is
introduce an illusory bubble of wealth and prosperity that will come crashing
down to the ground when the fossil fuels are gone. We are suggesting that now is the time to
find ways to soften the blow. The age of
fossil fuels has been like living in a dream; it is not a long-term reality.
Dr. Bartlett closes:
“And I'll close with these
words from the late Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. He said, ‘Unlike the
plagues of the dark ages, or contemporary diseases which we do not yet
understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is soluble with means we have
discovered and with resources we possess. What is lacking is not sufficient
knowledge of the solution, but universal consciousness of the gravity of the
problem and the education of the billions who are its victims.’ ”
This returns us to a modernized version of the Malthusian Catastrophe.[4] We certainly agree that this is a grave
problem and that education lies at the core of its solution. However, the utopian delusion created by overdependence
on fossil fuels, greatly clouds our perception of reality. The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)
voiced his concerns long before fossil fuels, except perhaps for coal, became a
dominant source of world power. Malthus
has the advantage of observation unobscured by fossil fuel smoke. On the other hand, he lived on a rather
constricted and crowded island. That
being said, it is impossible for us to know the answers to these many questions
until we have resolved the fossil fuel riddle, and developed a complete set of
necessary conditions.
Our Conclusion
Dr. Bartlett has certainly “made
a reasonable case for [his] opening statement.
“I think the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to
understand this very simple arithmetic.”
Along the way, he exposed
some, but not all of the necessary conditions for a practical analysis and
solution. These necessary conditions
must be ferreted out and employed to good use.
The absence of a complete set of necessary conditions throws Dr.
Bartlett’s concerns back upon a new version of the Malthusian Catastrophe, into partial league with thinkers
like Kenneth Arrow[5]
and Paul Ehrlich,[6] and
into conflict with the likes of Julian Simon.[7]
We have dismissed
Dr. Simon as a bit of a utopian fool: but, all of his objections are not so
easily dismissed. That being said, the
idea that science can solve every problem, is a silly myth; a myth that needs
to be unmasked before it causes more damage.
Unrestrained science lies behind the Aswan Dam fiasco, and other modern
solutions that have only made matters worse.
Finally, how will
we produce the level of work output that we have grown to expect when fossil
fuels are gone? Will external combustion
engines return to use? Will we be able
to master the necessary skills, efficiencies, and quantities of horse and man
power to take up the bulk of the slack in a satisfactory way? The time to learn the answers to these and
other pressing, life and death questions is now, not ten years from now.
[1]
Dr. Bartlett
[2]
Brickman, the small society
[3]
CBS News, December 29, 1970
[4]
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe.
[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Arrow
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon
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